Fuel prices increased due to the conflict: how much will Europe pay for food in 2-3 months?

When an international conflict affects oil supplies or major shipping routes, the first signal is almost always seen at gas stations. Europe is currently under pressure from the Middle East conflict on energy markets, with disruptions in the region putting oil and especially diesel prices at risk, and markets fearing longer logistical disruptions and more expensive transportation. Analysts also note that lower refining and altered supply flows make the middle distillates segment, which includes diesel, the fuel most important to Europe's logistics and food supply, particularly vulnerable.

However, food prices do not rise on the same day as fuel prices. Initially, costs for transporters, farms, processors and traders increase. Only later are they transferred to the final price of the product. This delay is why consumers often see more expensive fuel first, and then higher prices in stores weeks or months later. The ECB has also emphasized in recent days that energy shocks in Europe still remain one of the most important channels of inflation risk, as they are transmitted not only directly through fuel prices, but also indirectly through production, transport and business expectations.

That is why the question "how much will we pay for food in 2-3 months?" is quite logical. Such a period in the market is often enough for more expensive energy to begin to be reflected in contracts, transmission rates, storage prices and merchant decisions. In other words, if the conflict persists for more than a few weeks, the impact on food in Europe is almost inevitable.

Which products will become more expensive in Europe and why?

Food products with a high cost of logistics, refrigeration, packaging and processing are likely to feel the greatest pressure in the next 2-3 months. This means that the most sensitive categories can be meat, dairy products, frozen products, imported fruits and vegetables, as well as more processed foods. The more the product travels, the more energy it needs to store or process, the more it reacts to fuel prices. Even outside the food sector, manufacturers are already talking about rising costs for logistics, plastics and other oil-based raw materials, suggesting price pressures are broader than just transport, Reuters and business company comments show.

Not only the price of fuel is important for food prices, but also fertilizers, chemicals, packaging and energy throughout the supply chain. The FAO stated at the beginning of April that the global prices of food raw materials rose for the second month in a row in March, and one of the main reasons was precisely the increase in energy costs due to the conflict. FAO also noted that uncertainty has increased in the fertilizer market, and that price pressure may continue in some groups if the conflict drags on. This is important for Europe, because even if there is no shortage of food products in supermarkets, the cost of their production and delivery can still rise.

Another important detail is that Europe is not homogeneous. Southern, Western and Northern European countries may feel the same shock differently. Countries with greater dependence on imports, longer supply routes or lower household incomes tend to feel these price spikes more acutely. Therefore, the price increase may be more visible on the shelves of fresh imported products in one place, and in processed food or milk segments in another. However, the general trend is the same: the longer energy prices remain high, the more products in Europe gradually add additional costs to the final price.

How much more can Europe really pay in 2-3 months?

Realistically speaking, Europe is unlikely to see one dramatic "food price explosion" in the coming months, but a broader, moderate and uneven rise in prices is very likely. In other words, not all products will jump at the same rate and prices will not rise at the same rate in all countries, but the overall shopping basket may become more expensive for many consumers. At the moment, international institutions and market participants are more inclined not to a 2022-scale shock scenario, but to a slower but still felt pressure. This means that in 2-3 months, Europeans will likely pay more, not because there will be a sudden shortage of food, but because it will become more expensive all the way from production to the store.

The most important factor now is the duration of the conflict. If the tension eases relatively quickly, some of the current price pressure may remain temporary and not all of it will be passed on to consumers. However, if higher fuel prices and logistical disruptions persist throughout the next quarter, then a rise in food prices in Europe in early to mid-summer would be much more likely. In this case, consumers would first feel it in everyday categories - milk, meat, fruit, vegetables, frozen products and some essential processed products.

Therefore, the answer to the question of how much Europe will pay for food in 2-3 months is today: probably more, but not uniformly and not everywhere dramatically. If the conflict continues to keep oil and diesel prices high, Europeans' food bills will rise gradually, through the supply chain, rather than in one sudden price spike. In other words, fuel prices are already becoming a signal that in a few months you will have to pay more for some everyday products in Europe.